SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiji win with a probability of 64.12%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Papua New Guinea had a probability of 15.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiji win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.91%) and 0-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.37%), while for a Papua New Guinea win it was 2-1 (4.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Papua New Guinea | Draw | Fiji |
15.94% ( 1.26) | 19.94% ( 0.8) | 64.12% ( -2.07) |
| Both teams to score 53.98% ( 0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.18% ( -1.1) | 40.82% ( 1.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.79% ( -1.14) | 63.21% ( 1.14) |
| Papua New Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.37% ( 0.97) | 38.63% ( -0.97) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.63% ( 0.91) | 75.37% ( -0.91) |
| Fiji Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.95% ( -0.88) | 12.05% ( 0.88) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.46% ( -1.89) | 37.54% ( 1.89) |
| Score Analysis |
| Papua New Guinea | Draw | Fiji |
| 2-1 @ 4.46% ( 0.3) 1-0 @ 4.43% ( 0.33)2-0 @ 2.11% ( 0.21)3-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 1.41% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.05% Total : 15.94% | 1-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.39) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.16)0-0 @ 4.65% ( 0.23)3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.15% Total : 19.94% | 0-2 @ 10.42% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 9.91% ( 0.07)0-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.15)0-3 @ 7.35% ( -0.41)1-3 @ 6.99% ( -0.2)0-4 @ 3.89% ( -0.37)1-4 @ 3.7% ( -0.24)2-3 @ 3.33% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.76% ( -0.07)0-5 @ 1.65% ( -0.22)1-5 @ 1.57% ( -0.16)Other @ 3.71% Total : 64.12% |
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