Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 50.02%. A win for Nuremberg had a probability of 26.25% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.09%). The likeliest Nuremberg win was 1-2 (6.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Holstein Kiel in this match.
0.41) 
-0.02) 
