SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 66.6%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 13.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.92%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.26%), while for a Erzgebirge Aue win it was 0-1 (4.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| St Pauli | Draw | Erzgebirge Aue |
| 66.6% | 19.5% | 13.9% |
| Both teams to score 50.26% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.85% | 43.15% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.45% | 65.55% |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.95% | 12.05% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 62.44% | 37.56% |
| Erzgebirge Aue Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.15% | 42.85% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 20.83% | 79.17% |
| Score Analysis |
| St Pauli | Draw | Erzgebirge Aue |
| 2-0 @ 11.56% 1-0 @ 10.92% 2-1 @ 9.8% 3-0 @ 8.16% 3-1 @ 6.91% 4-0 @ 4.31% 4-1 @ 3.66% 3-2 @ 2.93% 5-0 @ 1.83% 4-2 @ 1.55% 5-1 @ 1.55% Other @ 3.42% Total : 66.59% | 1-1 @ 9.26% 0-0 @ 5.16% 2-2 @ 4.15% Other @ 0.93% Total : 19.5% | 0-1 @ 4.38% 1-2 @ 3.92% 0-2 @ 1.85% 2-3 @ 1.17% 1-3 @ 1.11% Other @ 1.47% Total : 13.9% |
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