SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 37.7%. A win for Central Coast Mariners had a probability of 36.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.05%). The likeliest Central Coast Mariners win was 1-0 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Central Coast Mariners would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
36.94% ( 0.18) | 25.35% ( 0.16) | 37.7% ( -0.33) |
| Both teams to score 56.5% ( -0.55) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.73% ( -0.71) | 47.27% ( 0.71) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.5% ( -0.66) | 69.5% ( 0.66) |
| Central Coast Mariners Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.96% ( -0.23) | 25.04% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.29% ( -0.32) | 59.71% ( 0.32) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.38% ( -0.5) | 24.62% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.87% ( -0.71) | 59.13% ( 0.71) |
| Score Analysis |
| Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 1-0 @ 8.54% ( 0.2) 2-1 @ 8.28% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.91% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 3.82% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.68% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 0.95% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.78% Total : 36.94% | 1-1 @ 11.96% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 6.16% ( 0.18)2-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.35% | 0-1 @ 8.64% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 8.38% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 6.05% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.92% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 2.83% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.85% Total : 37.7% |
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