Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 38.82%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 37.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.06%) and 2-0 (5.53%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
