Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western Sydney Wanderers win with a probability of 40.58%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 34.86% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western Sydney Wanderers win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.15%) and 0-2 (6.24%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
