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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 43.21%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 34.18% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.15%) and 0-2 (5.52%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 2-1 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Brisbane Roar | Draw | Melbourne City |
34.18% ( 0.32) | 22.61% ( 0.09) | 43.21% ( -0.41) |
| Both teams to score 66.17% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.5% ( -0.38) | 34.5% ( 0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.57% ( -0.42) | 56.42% ( 0.42) |
| Brisbane Roar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.36% ( -0.02) | 20.63% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.79% ( -0.02) | 53.2% ( 0.02) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.38% ( -0.31) | 16.61% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.56% ( -0.55) | 46.43% ( 0.55) |
| Score Analysis |
| Brisbane Roar | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 7.66% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 5.41% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 4.27% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 4.03% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.25% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.59% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.43% ( -0)Other @ 3.93% Total : 34.18% | 1-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 6.88% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.43% Total : 22.61% | 1-2 @ 8.72% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 6.15% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 5.52% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 5.22% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 4.12% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 3.3% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 2.34% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 1.85% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.48% ( -0.03)3-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.54% Total : 43.21% |
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