SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Central Coast Mariners | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Melbourne City | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Sydney FC | 6 | 1 | 8 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Wellington Phoenix | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 11 | Adelaide United | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Brisbane Roar | 4 | -5 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 65.89%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Adelaide United had a probability of 14.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.02%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.14%), while for an Adelaide United win it was 0-1 (4.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Adelaide United |
65.89% ( 2.35) | 19.38% ( -0.62) | 14.72% ( -1.72) |
| Both teams to score 52.88% ( -2.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.21% ( -0.61) | 40.79% ( 0.61) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.83% ( -0.63) | 63.17% ( 0.63) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.44% ( 0.46) | 11.55% ( -0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.51% ( 0.98) | 36.49% ( -0.98) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.79% ( -2.6) | 40.21% ( 2.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.16% ( -2.46) | 76.84% ( 2.46) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-0 @ 10.81% ( 0.67) 1-0 @ 10.02% ( 0.45)2-1 @ 9.86% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 7.78% ( 0.62)3-1 @ 7.09% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 4.2% ( 0.4)4-1 @ 3.83% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 3.23% ( -0.2)5-0 @ 1.81% ( 0.2)4-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.07)5-1 @ 1.65% ( 0.08)Other @ 3.86% Total : 65.88% | 1-1 @ 9.14% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 4.65% ( 0.13)2-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.36)3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.13% Total : 19.38% | 0-1 @ 4.23% ( -0.19) 1-2 @ 4.16% ( -0.42)0-2 @ 1.93% ( -0.23)2-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.22)1-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.23)Other @ 1.77% Total : 14.72% |
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