Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 55.21%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 22.65% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.84%) and 0-2 (8.5%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (5.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
