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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 43.2%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 32.73% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Adelaide United |
32.73% ( 1.1) | 24.06% ( 0.09) | 43.2% ( -1.19) |
| Both teams to score 60.22% ( 0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.92% | 42.08% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.52% | 64.48% ( 0) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.98% ( 0.66) | 25.01% ( -0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.32% ( 0.91) | 59.67% ( -0.91) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.3% ( -0.51) | 19.69% ( 0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.3% ( -0.83) | 51.69% ( 0.84) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-1 @ 7.69% ( 0.17) 1-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.13)2-0 @ 4.73% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 3.55% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 2.89% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 2.19% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 1.23% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 1% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.64% Total : 32.73% | 1-1 @ 11.09% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.24% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 4.93% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.06% | 1-2 @ 9.01% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 8% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.21)1-3 @ 4.88% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 3.52% ( -0.17)2-3 @ 3.38% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.98% ( -0.09)0-4 @ 1.43% ( -0.09)2-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.11% Total : 43.2% |
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