Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 74.67%. A draw had a probability of 15.3% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 10.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.33%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.11%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 1-2 (3%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
