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Australian A-League | Gameweek 15
Feb 3, 2023 at 8.45am UK
AAMI Park
WP

Victory
3 - 1
Wellington

Fornaroli (32'), Brimmer (54'), Juric (90+1')
Fornaroli (70')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Zawada (13')
Elliot (25'), Surman (52')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Victory 1-2 Sydney FC
Thursday, January 26 at 7.45am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Wellington 2-2 Perth Glory
Saturday, January 28 at 2am in Australian A-League

We said: Melbourne Victory 0-2 Wellington Phoenix

Melbourne Victory are struggling massively right now, and while playing at home would normally provide a benefit to a team, that is not the case for them right now. The hosts have won just a single match in their own stadium this season, and because of that Wellington Phoenix should be able to claim all three points in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 46.6%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 0-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.

Result
Melbourne VictoryDrawWellington Phoenix
46.6% (0.0050000000000026 0.01) 24.68% (-0.113 -0.11) 28.71% (0.106 0.11)
Both teams to score 55.92% (0.44600000000001 0.45)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.23% (0.553 0.55)46.77% (-0.554 -0.55)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.97% (0.516 0.52)69.03% (-0.51599999999999 -0.52)
Melbourne Victory Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.86% (0.227 0.23)20.14% (-0.227 -0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.58% (0.363 0.36)52.42% (-0.362 -0.36)
Wellington Phoenix Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.03% (0.361 0.36)29.97% (-0.361 -0.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.92% (0.433 0.43)66.08% (-0.43299999999999 -0.43)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne Victory 46.6%
    Wellington Phoenix 28.71%
    Draw 24.68%
Melbourne VictoryDrawWellington Phoenix
1-0 @ 9.67% (-0.157 -0.16)
2-1 @ 9.34% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
2-0 @ 7.75% (-0.071 -0.07)
3-1 @ 4.99% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.14% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.01% (0.053 0.05)
4-1 @ 2% (0.03 0.03)
4-0 @ 1.66% (0.008 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.2% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 46.6%
1-1 @ 11.65% (-0.07 -0.07)
0-0 @ 6.04% (-0.142 -0.14)
2-2 @ 5.63% (0.061 0.06)
3-3 @ 1.21% (0.033 0.03)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 24.68%
0-1 @ 7.27% (-0.097 -0.1)
1-2 @ 7.02% (0.027 0.03)
0-2 @ 4.38% (-0.014 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.82% (0.038 0.04)
2-3 @ 2.26% (0.046 0.05)
0-3 @ 1.76% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 3.2%
Total : 28.71%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Victory 1-2 Sydney FC
Thursday, January 26 at 7.45am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Perth Glory 3-1 Victory
Saturday, January 21 at 11.30am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Adelaide United 1-1 Victory
Saturday, January 14 at 8.45am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Victory 0-1 Brisbane Roar
Friday, January 6 at 8.45am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Central Coast 2-1 Victory
Saturday, December 31 at 8am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Western Utd 1-0 Victory
Monday, December 26 at 7am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Wellington 2-2 Perth Glory
Saturday, January 28 at 2am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Wellington 2-1 Central Coast
Sunday, January 22 at 2am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Brisbane Roar 0-1 Wellington
Saturday, January 14 at 6am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Sydney FC 0-1 Wellington
Saturday, January 7 at 6am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Wellington 1-3 Melbourne City
Monday, January 2 at 2am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Perth Glory 1-1 Wellington
Friday, December 23 at 11.30am in Australian A-League


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