Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 46.6%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 0-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.
Result | ||
Melbourne Victory | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
46.6% ( 0.01) | 24.68% ( -0.11) | 28.71% ( 0.11) |
Both teams to score 55.92% ( 0.45) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.23% ( 0.55) | 46.77% ( -0.55) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.97% ( 0.52) | 69.03% ( -0.52) |
Melbourne Victory Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.86% ( 0.23) | 20.14% ( -0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.58% ( 0.36) | 52.42% ( -0.36) |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.03% ( 0.36) | 29.97% ( -0.36) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.92% ( 0.43) | 66.08% ( -0.43) |
Score Analysis |
Melbourne Victory | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
1-0 @ 9.67% ( -0.16) 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.75% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 4.99% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 4.14% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 2% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.66% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.85% Total : 46.6% | 1-1 @ 11.65% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 6.04% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 5.63% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.68% | 0-1 @ 7.27% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 7.02% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.82% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.26% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.2% Total : 28.71% |
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