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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 54.5%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 22.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.82%) and 0-2 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Melbourne Victory win it was 1-0 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City |
22.24% ( 0.25) | 23.26% ( 0.18) | 54.5% ( -0.43) |
| Both teams to score 54.17% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.93% ( -0.49) | 46.08% ( 0.5) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.63% ( -0.47) | 68.38% ( 0.47) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.11% ( -0.04) | 34.89% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.37% ( -0.04) | 71.63% ( 0.05) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.2% ( -0.33) | 16.8% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.24% ( -0.59) | 46.77% ( 0.59) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 1-0 @ 6.17% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 5.8% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.14% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.04% Total : 22.24% | 1-1 @ 11.01% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 5.86% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 5.17% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.14% Total : 23.26% | 0-1 @ 10.45% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 9.82% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 9.33% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 5.84% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 5.55% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 3.07% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 2.6% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 2.47% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.03)1-5 @ 0.93% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.06% Total : 54.49% |
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