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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 68.12%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Adelaide United had a probability of 13.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.75%) and 1-0 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.62%), while for an Adelaide United win it was 1-2 (3.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Adelaide United |
68.12% ( 0.56) | 18.37% ( -0.13) | 13.51% ( -0.44) |
| Both teams to score 53.15% ( -0.81) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.2% ( -0.44) | 38.8% ( 0.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.89% ( -0.47) | 61.11% ( 0.47) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.58% ( 0.02) | 10.42% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.02% ( 0.04) | 33.98% ( -0.04) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.33% ( -0.91) | 40.67% ( 0.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.74% ( -0.83) | 77.26% ( 0.83) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-0 @ 10.83% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 9.75% ( -0.02)1-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.21)3-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 7.35% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 4.62% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 4.16% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.09)5-0 @ 2.09% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 1.88% 4-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.05)Other @ 4.51% Total : 68.11% | 1-1 @ 8.62% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.12)0-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.14% Total : 18.37% | 1-2 @ 3.88% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 3.81% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.63% Total : 13.51% |
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