SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 44.54%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 29.57% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 0-1 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
44.54% ( 0.27) | 25.89% ( -0.1) | 29.57% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 52.55% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.58% ( 0.32) | 51.42% ( -0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.77% ( 0.27) | 73.23% ( -0.28) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.99% ( 0.26) | 23.01% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.18% ( 0.39) | 56.81% ( -0.39) |
| Brisbane Roar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.26% ( 0.04) | 31.74% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.83% ( 0.04) | 68.17% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
| 1-0 @ 10.73% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.05% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 7.88% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.43% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 3.86% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.54% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.63% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.42% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.06% Total : 44.54% | 1-1 @ 12.31% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 7.3% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.89% | 0-1 @ 8.38% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 7.07% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.7% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.79% Total : 29.57% |
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