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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 58.33%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 21.23% and a draw had a probability of 20.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.84%) and 1-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (5.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sydney FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sydney FC | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
58.33% ( 0.7) | 20.43% ( -0.02) | 21.23% ( -0.68) |
| Both teams to score 62.62% ( -0.99) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.72% ( -0.83) | 34.28% ( 0.83) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.82% ( -0.94) | 56.18% ( 0.95) |
| Sydney FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.36% ( -0.07) | 11.64% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.33% ( -0.16) | 36.67% ( 0.16) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.86% ( -1.06) | 29.14% ( 1.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.93% ( -1.33) | 65.07% ( 1.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sydney FC | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 9.67% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.29)1-0 @ 7.29% ( 0.29)3-1 @ 6.94% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 5.62% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.11)4-1 @ 3.73% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 2.3% ( -0.06)5-1 @ 1.61% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.04)5-2 @ 0.99% ( -0.03)4-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.79% Total : 58.34% | 1-1 @ 8.99% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.96% ( -0.13)0-0 @ 3.39% ( 0.14)3-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.32% Total : 20.43% | 1-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 4.18% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 2.58% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 2.28% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.14% Total : 21.23% |
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