Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 53.98%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 24.01% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.1%) and 0-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
