SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Libya | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Rwanda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sierra Leone | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Libya win with a probability of 49.22%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Equatorial Guinea had a probability of 24.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Libya win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.43%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.32%), while for a Equatorial Guinea win it was 0-1 (8.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Libya | Draw | Equatorial Guinea |
49.22% ( -2.55) | 26.06% ( 0.61) | 24.71% ( 1.94) |
| Both teams to score 48.42% ( 0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.95% ( -0.66) | 55.04% ( 0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.69% ( -0.55) | 76.31% ( 0.55) |
| Libya Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.6% ( -1.37) | 22.4% ( 1.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.08% ( -2.1) | 55.91% ( 2.09) |
| Equatorial Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.39% ( 1.44) | 37.6% ( -1.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.61% ( 1.38) | 74.38% ( -1.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Libya | Draw | Equatorial Guinea |
| 1-0 @ 12.6% ( -0.2) 2-0 @ 9.43% ( -0.55)2-1 @ 9.22% ( -0.17)3-0 @ 4.7% ( -0.49)3-1 @ 4.6% ( -0.28)3-2 @ 2.25% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.76% ( -0.26)4-1 @ 1.72% ( -0.18)Other @ 2.95% Total : 49.22% | 1-1 @ 12.32% ( 0.28) 0-0 @ 8.42% ( 0.21)2-2 @ 4.51% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.8% Total : 26.06% | 0-1 @ 8.24% ( 0.52) 1-2 @ 6.03% ( 0.37)0-2 @ 4.03% ( 0.4)1-3 @ 1.97% ( 0.19)2-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 1.31% ( 0.18)Other @ 1.67% Total : 24.71% |
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