SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 35.35%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 33.77% and a draw had a probability of 30.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.97%) and 2-1 (6.86%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (13.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
35.35% ( -0.34) | 30.87% ( 0.23) | 33.77% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 39.89% ( -0.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.26% ( -0.68) | 67.74% ( 0.68) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.24% ( -0.45) | 85.76% ( 0.45) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.71% ( -0.6) | 36.28% ( 0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.93% ( -0.62) | 73.07% ( 0.62) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.6% ( -0.31) | 37.39% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.82% ( -0.3) | 74.18% ( 0.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
| 1-0 @ 13.75% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 6.97% ( -0.05)2-1 @ 6.86% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 2.36% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 2.32% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.95% Total : 35.35% | 0-0 @ 13.56% ( 0.33) 1-1 @ 13.53% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.37% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.4% Total : 30.86% | 0-1 @ 13.34% ( 0.22) 1-2 @ 6.66% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 6.56% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 2.15% 2-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.77% Total : 33.77% |
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