SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Racing Club | 14 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | Estudiantes | 13 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | River Plate | 13 | 18 | 26 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Gimnasia | 13 | 2 | 21 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 52.2%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 21.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (7.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Estudiantes | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
52.2% ( -1.42) | 25.81% ( 0.12) | 21.99% ( 1.3) |
| Both teams to score 46.23% ( 1.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.58% ( 0.86) | 56.42% ( -0.85) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.57% ( 0.69) | 77.43% ( -0.68) |
| Estudiantes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.32% ( -0.24) | 21.68% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.18% ( -0.38) | 54.82% ( 0.38) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.03% ( 1.85) | 40.97% ( -1.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.47% ( 1.61) | 77.53% ( -1.61) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estudiantes | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
| 1-0 @ 13.58% ( -0.55) 2-0 @ 10.38% ( -0.5)2-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.29% ( -0.3)3-1 @ 4.72% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 2.02% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 1.8% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.04% Total : 52.2% | 1-1 @ 12.11% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 8.88% ( -0.3)2-2 @ 4.13% ( 0.22)Other @ 0.68% Total : 25.81% | 0-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 5.41% ( 0.32)0-2 @ 3.54% ( 0.24)1-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.17)2-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.12)Other @ 1.23% Total : 21.99% |
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