SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 51.9%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 20.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.35%) and 2-1 (8.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (8.95%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that San Lorenzo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Gimnasia |
51.9% ( -0.02) | 27.84% ( 0.01) | 20.26% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 39.19% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.53% ( -0.01) | 64.47% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.48% ( -0.01) | 83.52% ( 0.01) |
| San Lorenzo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.7% ( -0.01) | 25.3% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.92% ( -0.02) | 60.08% ( 0.02) |
| Gimnasia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.47% ( 0.01) | 47.53% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.12% ( 0.01) | 82.88% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Gimnasia |
| 1-0 @ 16.52% 2-0 @ 11.35% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 8.45% ( -0)3-0 @ 5.2% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.87% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.79% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.44% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.33% ( -0)Other @ 1.94% Total : 51.89% | 1-1 @ 12.29% 0-0 @ 12.02% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.14% Other @ 0.38% Total : 27.83% | 0-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.57% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.33% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.13% ( 0)Other @ 2.28% Total : 20.26% |
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