SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia win with a probability of 40.15%. A win for Estudiantes had a probability of 30.95% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.96%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest Estudiantes win was 0-1 (11.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gimnasia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gimnasia | Draw | Estudiantes |
40.15% ( 0.07) | 28.9% ( -0.06) | 30.95% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 44.43% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.97% ( 0.2) | 62.03% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.24% ( 0.14) | 81.76% ( -0.14) |
| Gimnasia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.77% ( 0.14) | 30.24% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.6% ( 0.16) | 66.4% ( -0.16) |
| Estudiantes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.68% ( 0.1) | 36.32% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.9% ( 0.1) | 73.11% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gimnasia | Draw | Estudiantes |
| 1-0 @ 13.13% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.96% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 7.86% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.17% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.61% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.4% Total : 40.15% | 1-1 @ 13.3% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.98% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 4.03% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.59% Total : 28.9% | 0-1 @ 11.12% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 6.74% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.9% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.92% Total : 30.95% |
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