SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 45.39%. A draw had a probability of 30.6% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 23.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.9%) and 2-1 (7.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.54%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Union | Draw | Sarmiento |
45.39% ( 0.29) | 30.63% ( -0.09) | 23.98% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 36.69% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 30.38% ( 0.13) | 69.62% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 13.01% ( 0.08) | 86.99% ( -0.08) |
| Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.87% ( 0.22) | 31.13% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.54% ( 0.26) | 67.46% ( -0.27) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.27% ( -0.12) | 46.73% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.72% ( -0.09) | 82.28% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union | Draw | Sarmiento |
| 1-0 @ 16.97% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9.9% ( 0.08)2-1 @ 7.54% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.85% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 2.93% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.95% Total : 45.39% | 0-0 @ 14.54% ( -0.07) 1-1 @ 12.91% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 2.87% ( 0)Other @ 0.3% Total : 30.62% | 0-1 @ 11.06% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 4.91% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 4.21% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.47% Total : 23.97% |
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