SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Huracan | 13 | 1 | 18 |
| 13 | Sarmiento | 12 | -7 | 18 |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 19 | Arsenal Sarandi | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 20 | Independiente | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 21 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | -2 | 12 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 39.44%. A win for Sarmiento had a probability of 32.54% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.14%) and 0-2 (7.42%). The likeliest Sarmiento win was 1-0 (10.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | Independiente |
32.54% ( -0.2) | 28.02% ( -0.1) | 39.44% ( 0.3) |
| Both teams to score 47.33% ( 0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.36% ( 0.32) | 58.64% ( -0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.81% ( 0.25) | 79.19% ( -0.25) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.64% ( 0.02) | 33.36% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.02% ( 0.03) | 69.98% ( -0.03) |
| Independiente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.02% ( 0.33) | 28.98% ( -0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.13% ( 0.41) | 64.88% ( -0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | Independiente |
| 1-0 @ 10.61% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 7.22% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.83% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 2.64% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.13% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.48% Total : 32.54% | 1-1 @ 13.14% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 9.67% ( -0.12)2-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.74% Total : 28.01% | 0-1 @ 11.97% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.14% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 7.42% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 3.36% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 3.06% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.66% Total : 39.44% |
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