Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia win with a probability of 40.15%. A win for Union had a probability of 33.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Union win was 0-1 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Gimnasia in this match.
