SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 49.02%. A draw had a probability of 29.3% and a win for Atletico Tucuman had a probability of 21.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.81%) and 2-1 (7.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.44%), while for an Atletico Tucuman win it was 0-1 (9.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Atletico Tucuman |
49.02% ( 0.44) | 29.31% ( 0.09) | 21.67% ( -0.53) |
| Both teams to score 37.52% ( -0.7) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.51% ( -0.59) | 67.49% ( 0.59) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.4% ( -0.4) | 85.6% ( 0.4) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.87% ( -0.07) | 28.13% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.19% ( -0.08) | 63.81% ( 0.08) |
| Atletico Tucuman Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.2% ( -0.92) | 47.8% ( 0.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.92% ( -0.69) | 83.08% ( 0.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Atletico Tucuman |
| 1-0 @ 17.05% ( 0.34) 2-0 @ 10.81% ( 0.19)2-1 @ 7.98% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 4.57% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 3.38% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.45% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.07% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.46% Total : 49.01% | 0-0 @ 13.44% ( 0.29) 1-1 @ 12.58% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 2.95% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.33% Total : 29.29% | 0-1 @ 9.93% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.15)0-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.39% Total : 21.67% |
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