SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 41.87%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 31.2% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 (9.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | River Plate |
31.2% ( -0.2) | 26.93% ( -0.38) | 41.87% ( 0.58) |
| Both teams to score 50.11% ( 1.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.08% ( 1.38) | 54.92% ( -1.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.79% ( 1.13) | 76.21% ( -1.13) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.62% ( 0.57) | 32.38% ( -0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.11% ( 0.64) | 68.89% ( -0.64) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.11% ( 0.95) | 25.89% ( -0.95) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.12% ( 1.26) | 60.88% ( -1.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 9.45% ( -0.37) 2-1 @ 7.2% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 5.33% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 2.71% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 2% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.67% Total : 31.2% | 1-1 @ 12.77% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 8.38% ( -0.46)2-2 @ 4.87% ( 0.15)Other @ 0.91% Total : 26.93% | 0-1 @ 11.32% ( -0.31) 1-2 @ 8.63% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 7.65% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.89% ( 0.16)0-3 @ 3.45% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 2.19% ( 0.13)1-4 @ 1.31% ( 0.09)0-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.25% Total : 41.86% |
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