SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Qatar | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Tajikistan | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | China | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Lebanon | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Iran | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | United Arab Emirates | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Palestine | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Hong Kong | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 43.14%. A win for United Arab Emirates had a probability of 29.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest United Arab Emirates win was 0-1 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%).
| Result | ||
| Tajikistan | Draw | United Arab Emirates |
43.14% ( -0.19) | 27.83% ( 0.01) | 29.02% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 46.53% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.98% ( 0.02) | 59.02% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.51% ( 0.01) | 79.48% ( -0.01) |
| Tajikistan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.88% ( -0.09) | 27.12% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.5% ( -0.13) | 62.5% ( 0.12) |
| United Arab Emirates Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.83% ( 0.15) | 36.16% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.05% ( 0.15) | 72.95% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tajikistan | Draw | United Arab Emirates |
| 1-0 @ 12.79% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 8.49% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 8.35% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 3.7% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.88% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.9% Total : 43.13% | 1-1 @ 13.01% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.81% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.32% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.69% Total : 27.83% | 0-1 @ 9.97% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.62% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.93% Total : 29.02% |
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