SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 61.01%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 16.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.38%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.52%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (5.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fortaleza | Draw | America Mineiro |
61.01% ( -1.43) | 22.14% ( 0.24) | 16.86% ( 1.19) |
| Both teams to score 48.76% ( 1.77) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.22% ( 1.04) | 48.78% ( -1.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.12% ( 0.94) | 70.88% ( -0.94) |
| Fortaleza Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.48% ( -0.11) | 15.52% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.57% ( -0.21) | 44.43% ( 0.22) |
| America Mineiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.72% ( 2.18) | 42.28% ( -2.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.32% ( 1.82) | 78.68% ( -1.81) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortaleza | Draw | America Mineiro |
| 1-0 @ 12.22% ( -0.58) 2-0 @ 11.38% ( -0.6)2-1 @ 9.8% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 7.07% ( -0.4)3-1 @ 6.09% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 3.3% ( -0.2)4-1 @ 2.84% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.62% ( 0.17)5-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.07)5-1 @ 1.06% ( -0)Other @ 2.18% Total : 61% | 1-1 @ 10.52% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 6.56% ( -0.28)2-2 @ 4.22% ( 0.28)Other @ 0.83% Total : 22.13% | 0-1 @ 5.65% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 4.53% ( 0.32)0-2 @ 2.43% ( 0.18)1-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.16)2-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.15)Other @ 1.74% Total : 16.86% |
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