Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 36.05%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 35.88% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.73%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (11.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
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