Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 60.25%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 17.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.78%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.45%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
-1.59) 
0.36) 
