Two sides who are scoring few and conceding fewer of late, we are not expecting a goal fest here.
Even so, as Cuiaba become more desperate for points, particularly in front of their own fans, we can see them pushing for goals, against an America side who are strong enough to resist and respond.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cuiaba win with a probability of 49.4%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 21.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cuiaba win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (9.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cuiaba would win this match.
0.21) 
-0.27) 
