Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 43.54%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Santos had a probability of 27.93%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.71%) and 2-1 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.12%), while for a Santos win it was 0-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for America Mineiro in this match.
-1.92) 
0.05) 
