Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cuiaba win with a probability of 38.09%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 32.99% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cuiaba win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.75%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (11.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.
-0.02) 
0.03) 
