Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 53.25%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 20.99%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.76%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (7.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood.
-0.14) 
0.17) 
