Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coritiba win with a probability of 39.58%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 31.52% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coritiba win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.91%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (11.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
-0.23) 
0.03) 
