America Mineiro appear to have found better form across their recent outings, but unfortunately it has arrived too late for them to remain in the Copa Sudamericana.
With the hosts likely to rest several key players ahead of an important league game at the weekend, we can envisage a share of the spoils in this match, which may not be enough to keep Millonarios on top of Group F.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 54.81%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Millonarios had a probability of 20.51%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.67%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.66%), while for a Millonarios win it was 0-1 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.
0.03) 
-0.07) 
