Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 45.31%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Botafogo had a probability of 26.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.13%) and 1-2 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.97%), while for a Botafogo win it was 1-0 (9.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
0.05) 
-0.06) 
