SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 50.13%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 25.07% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.94%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Palmeiras | Draw | Sao Paulo |
50.13% ( 1.53) | 24.81% ( -0.97) | 25.07% ( -0.56) |
| Both teams to score 52.5% ( 2.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.14% ( 3.44) | 49.86% ( -3.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.14% ( 2.99) | 71.85% ( -2.99) |
| Palmeiras Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.09% ( 2.05) | 19.9% ( -2.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.97% ( 3.2) | 52.03% ( -3.2) |
| Sao Paulo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.54% ( 1.39) | 34.45% ( -1.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.83% ( 1.46) | 71.16% ( -1.46) |
| Score Analysis |
| Palmeiras | Draw | Sao Paulo |
| 1-0 @ 11.07% ( -0.86) 2-1 @ 9.52% ( 0.24)2-0 @ 8.94% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 5.12% ( 0.43)3-0 @ 4.81% ( 0.23)3-2 @ 2.73% ( 0.32)4-1 @ 2.07% ( 0.29)4-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.21)4-2 @ 1.1% ( 0.19)Other @ 2.83% Total : 50.13% | 1-1 @ 11.79% ( -0.45) 0-0 @ 6.86% ( -1.01)2-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.31)3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.15)Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.8% | 0-1 @ 7.31% ( -0.76) 1-2 @ 6.28% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.89% ( -0.25)1-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.17)0-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.17% Total : 25.07% |
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