Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 70.64%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 10.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.11%) and 3-0 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.87%), while for a Vitoria win it was 0-1 (4.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
-0.05) 
0.02) 
