SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 43.65%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 32.79% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-2 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.43%) and 0-2 (6.27%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Holstein Kiel | Draw | Mainz 05 |
32.79% ( 1.84) | 23.56% ( 1.05) | 43.65% ( -2.89) |
| Both teams to score 62.09% ( -3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.36% ( -4.3) | 39.63% ( 4.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.01% ( -4.63) | 61.98% ( 4.63) |
| Holstein Kiel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.19% ( -1.01) | 23.81% ( 1.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.02% ( -1.48) | 57.97% ( 1.48) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.49% ( -2.81) | 18.5% ( 2.81) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.27% ( -4.97) | 49.72% ( 4.97) |
| Score Analysis |
| Holstein Kiel | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 2-1 @ 7.65% ( 0.41) 1-0 @ 6.32% ( 1.03)2-0 @ 4.54% ( 0.63)3-1 @ 3.66% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 3.09% ( -0.22)3-0 @ 2.17% ( 0.24)4-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.93% Total : 32.79% | 1-1 @ 10.66% ( 0.87) 2-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.25)0-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.83)3-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.3)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.55% | 1-2 @ 9% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 7.43% ( 0.81)0-2 @ 6.27% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 5.06% ( -0.54)2-3 @ 3.63% ( -0.51)0-3 @ 3.53% ( -0.26)1-4 @ 2.14% ( -0.46)2-4 @ 1.53% ( -0.39)0-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.27)Other @ 3.58% Total : 43.65% |
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