While Werder Bremen have failed to win any of their first four home games this season, it is worth noting that all of those matches were against top-six opponents, including Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen.
With this being the hosts' first home game against a team below them in the league standings, and given their opponents' poor away record, we feel the River Islanders will be able to secure their first win of the season at Weserstadion in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 48.55%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 29.53% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.25%) and 0-2 (6.11%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 2-1 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Werder Bremen in this match.
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