SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 46.54%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 30.37% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.41%) and 0-2 (6.59%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (7.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
30.37% ( 0.01) | 23.08% ( -0.01) | 46.54% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 62.6% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.54% ( 0.04) | 38.45% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.25% ( 0.04) | 60.74% ( -0.04) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.32% ( 0.03) | 24.67% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.79% ( 0.04) | 59.21% ( -0.04) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.11% ( 0.01) | 16.89% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.08% ( 0.03) | 46.92% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 7.26% ( 0) 1-0 @ 5.83% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 4.08% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.39% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.01% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.9% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.18% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0)Other @ 2.67% Total : 30.37% | 1-1 @ 10.37% 2-2 @ 6.45% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.17% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.79% ( 0)Other @ 0.31% Total : 23.08% | 1-2 @ 9.22% ( -0) 0-1 @ 7.41% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 5.47% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.91% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.83% ( 0)1-4 @ 2.43% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.74% 2-4 @ 1.7% ( 0)Other @ 4.24% Total : 46.54% |
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