Given the poor away record of Borussia Monchengladbach, it is difficult to see how the visitors can secure a positive result on Friday.
However, Mainz have been inconsistent at home, and if they win it is likely to be a close affair.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 42.49%. A win for Borussia Monchengladbach had a probability of 34.53% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.5%) and 2-0 (5.65%). The likeliest Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-2 (7.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.