Union have shown more promising signs under Bjelica, and they will want to quickly get over their woeful result at the weekend against a side they have a good recent record over.
Koln have not beaten Union since a second-tier encounter in 2014, and their current woes in front of goal suggest they may struggle to get anything here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 46.66%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 28.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 0-1 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
0.53) 
-0.02) 
