SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 54.76%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 22.62% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.47%) and 2-0 (8.82%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-2 (5.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Werder Bremen |
54.76% ( 1.02) | 22.61% ( -0.22) | 22.62% ( -0.8) |
| Both teams to score 56.81% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.18% ( 0.11) | 42.81% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.78% ( 0.11) | 65.21% ( -0.11) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.45% ( 0.39) | 15.55% ( -0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.51% ( 0.72) | 44.48% ( -0.72) |
| Werder Bremen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.26% ( -0.65) | 32.73% ( 0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.71% ( -0.73) | 69.29% ( 0.72) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Werder Bremen |
| 2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 9.47% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 8.82% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 6.11% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 5.47% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 3.41% 4-1 @ 2.84% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 2.55% ( 0.12)4-2 @ 1.59% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.66% Total : 54.76% | 1-1 @ 10.57% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 5.09% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.18% Total : 22.61% | 1-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.16) 0-1 @ 5.68% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.43% Total : 22.62% |
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