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Bundesliga | Gameweek 4
Sep 22, 2024 at 4.30pm UK
Mercedes-Benz-Arena
DL

Stuttgart
5 - 1
Dortmund

Undav (4', 90'), Demirovic (21'), Millot (62'), Bilal Toure (80')
Leweling (17')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Guirassy (75')
Can (73'), Sabitzer (77'), Bensebaini (81')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Real Madrid 3-1 Stuttgart
Tuesday, September 17 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Brugge 0-3 Dortmund
Wednesday, September 18 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Stuttgart 1-2 Borussia Dortmund

Though Stuttgart's loss against Real Madrid was not an unexpected result, it was the third time this season that they have conceded three or more goals in a match. Additionally, Dortmund have been playing well in the early stages of their campaign under Sahin, and they should be full of confidence after their win against Club Brugge in the Champions League. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 47.98%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 30% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.27%) and 2-0 (6.06%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.37%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.

Result
StuttgartDrawBorussia Dortmund
47.98% (-0.214 -0.21) 22.01% (0.0060000000000002 0.01) 30% (0.209 0.21)
Both teams to score 66.37% (0.12 0.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.58% (0.10000000000001 0.1)33.41% (-0.097000000000001 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.8% (0.113 0.11)55.2% (-0.112 -0.11)
Stuttgart Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.53% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)14.47% (0.037000000000001 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.56% (-0.068999999999996 -0.07)42.44% (0.073 0.07)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.6% (0.175 0.17)22.4% (-0.173 -0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.08% (0.258 0.26)55.91% (-0.257 -0.26)
Score Analysis
    Stuttgart 47.98%
    Borussia Dortmund 30%
    Draw 22.02%
StuttgartDrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 9.06% (-0.023 -0.02)
1-0 @ 6.27% (-0.04 -0.04)
2-0 @ 6.06% (-0.047 -0.05)
3-1 @ 5.84% (-0.023 -0.02)
3-2 @ 4.37% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-0 @ 3.9% (-0.036 -0.04)
4-1 @ 2.82% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-2 @ 2.11%
4-0 @ 1.89% (-0.02 -0.02)
5-1 @ 1.09% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-3 @ 1.05% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 3.53%
Total : 47.98%
1-1 @ 9.37% (-0.011999999999999 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.78% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
0-0 @ 3.24% (-0.017 -0.02)
3-3 @ 2.18% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 0.44%
Total : 22.02%
1-2 @ 7.01% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
0-1 @ 4.85%
0-2 @ 3.63% (0.018 0.02)
1-3 @ 3.5% (0.031 0.03)
2-3 @ 3.38% (0.026 0.03)
0-3 @ 1.81% (0.019 0.02)
1-4 @ 1.31% (0.018 0.02)
2-4 @ 1.26% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 3.26%
Total : 30%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Real Madrid 3-1 Stuttgart
Tuesday, September 17 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Borussia M'bach 1-3 Stuttgart
Saturday, September 14 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Stuttgart 3-3 Mainz
Saturday, August 31 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Preussen Munster 0-5 Stuttgart
Tuesday, August 27 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Freiburg 3-1 Stuttgart
Saturday, August 24 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 2-2 Stuttgart (4-3 pen.)
Saturday, August 17 at 7.30pm in DFL-Supercup
Last Game: Brugge 0-3 Dortmund
Wednesday, September 18 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Dortmund 4-2 Heidenheim
Friday, September 13 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Werder Bremen 0-0 Dortmund
Saturday, August 31 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 2-0 Frankfurt
Saturday, August 24 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Phonix Lubeck 1-4 Dortmund
Saturday, August 17 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Dortmund 2-0 Aston Villa
Saturday, August 10 at 4pm in Club Friendlies 1


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