SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 50.35%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 27.78% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.66%) and 2-0 (6.55%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (6.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Stuttgart | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
50.35% ( 2.94) | 21.87% ( -0.36) | 27.78% ( -2.58) |
| Both teams to score 65.2% ( -0.6) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.75% ( 0.01) | 34.24% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.86% ( 0.01) | 56.14% ( -0.02) |
| Stuttgart Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.01% ( 0.99) | 13.99% ( -0.99) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.49% ( 1.91) | 41.5% ( -1.91) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.8% ( -1.59) | 24.19% ( 1.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.47% ( -2.3) | 58.52% ( 2.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Stuttgart | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 9.29% ( 0.22) 1-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.23)2-0 @ 6.55% ( 0.44)3-1 @ 6.09% ( 0.35)3-2 @ 4.32% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 4.29% ( 0.43)4-1 @ 3% ( 0.27)4-2 @ 2.13% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 2.11% ( 0.28)5-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.14)4-3 @ 1.01% ( 0)Other @ 3.74% Total : 50.35% | 1-1 @ 9.45% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.15)0-0 @ 3.38% ( -0)3-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.4% Total : 21.87% | 1-2 @ 6.7% ( -0.4) 0-1 @ 4.8% ( -0.23)0-2 @ 3.41% ( -0.34)1-3 @ 3.17% ( -0.35)2-3 @ 3.12% ( -0.23)0-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.24)1-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.18)2-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.14)Other @ 2.74% Total : 27.78% |
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