Champions League | Third Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Aug 3, 2022 at 5pm UK
Vilniaus LFF stadionas
We said: Bodo/Glimt 2-0 FK Zalgiris
Though they have suffered setbacks on the road to the group stage so far, Bodo/Glimt have performed with a swagger in recent matches and should prove particularly tough to beat in front of their own supporters.
While Zalgiris are currently more consistent in terms of results, the hosts' greater European experience should steer them to a useful first-leg lead.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bodo/Glimt win with a probability of 56.8%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for FK Zalgiris had a probability of 17.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bodo/Glimt win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.52%) and 2-1 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a FK Zalgiris win it was 0-1 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bodo/Glimt would win this match.
| Result |
| Bodo/Glimt | Draw | FK Zalgiris |
56.8% ( 0.09) | 25.98% ( -0.04) | 17.22% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 39.23% ( -0) |
| 38.04% ( 0.05) | 61.95% ( -0.05) |
| 18.3% ( 0.03) | 81.7% ( -0.03) |
| 77.96% ( 0.05) | 22.04% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.62% ( 0.08) | 55.37% ( -0.08) |
| 50.32% ( -0.04) | 49.67% ( 0.04) |
