SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 47.84%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 27.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 0-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lille | Draw | Sturm Graz |
47.84% ( 2.34) | 24.68% ( -0.58) | 27.48% ( -1.76) |
| Both teams to score 55.02% ( 0.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.45% ( 1.42) | 47.55% ( -1.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.25% ( 1.3) | 69.76% ( -1.29) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.07% ( 1.6) | 19.93% ( -1.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.92% ( 2.51) | 52.08% ( -2.51) |
| Sturm Graz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.72% ( -0.57) | 31.29% ( 0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.36% ( -0.66) | 67.64% ( 0.67) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lille | Draw | Sturm Graz |
| 1-0 @ 10.05% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 9.43% ( 0.22)2-0 @ 8.11% ( 0.31)3-1 @ 5.07% ( 0.35)3-0 @ 4.36% ( 0.37)3-2 @ 2.94% ( 0.16)4-1 @ 2.04% ( 0.23)4-0 @ 1.76% ( 0.23)4-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.89% Total : 47.83% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.3) 0-0 @ 6.24% ( -0.38)2-2 @ 5.48% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.68% | 0-1 @ 7.25% ( -0.56) 1-2 @ 6.79% ( -0.29)0-2 @ 4.21% ( -0.4)1-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.18)Other @ 2.85% Total : 27.48% |
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